Taiwan’s Diplomatic Uncertainty In The Wake Of Pope Francis’s Death

Taipei skyline at dusk with Taipei 101 tower.

As Taiwan grapples with growing uncertainties, the death of Pope Francis has brought the island nation to a crossroads in its diplomatic relations with the Vatican and China.

Quick Takes

China and Taiwan expressed condolences following Pope Francis’s death.
The Vatican opted for Taiwan’s ex-vice president to attend the funeral, not the president.
China pressures international entities to limit engagement with Taiwan.
Experts foresee no immediate shift in Vatican-Taiwan relations despite tensions.

Taiwan on the Edge

Pope Francis’s death has set off a series of diplomatic ripples for Taiwan, the only European state recognizing it being the Holy See. With China expressing a desire to improve bilateral relations with the Vatican, Taiwan remains apprehensive about its future ties. Taiwan’s President William Lai’s plan to attend Pope Francis’s funeral was replaced by former Vice President Chen Chien-jen as Taiwan’s envoy, breaking traditional protocols and raising eyebrows across China and Taiwan’s political spectrum.

China’s acknowledgment of Taiwan as a breakaway province adds another layer of complexity to the regional dynamics. The absence of Taiwan’s president at the funeral is seen by some analysts as a calculated move by the Vatican to avoid offending Beijing, which considers Taiwan a mere province. Taiwan’s diplomatic standing hangs in the balance, reliant on strategic decisions by the Vatican.

China’s Growing Influence

China has consistently exerted pressure on countries and institutions to sever diplomatic ties with Taiwan, demanding compliance for broader bilateral relations. The Vatican’s agreement with China in 2018 on bishop appointments is seen by Taiwan as an alarming signal of China’s influence. China also exerts its demand that the Vatican eliminate relations with Taiwan, anticipating any formal agreement to follow suit.

Taiwan keenly observes these developments, especially the Vatican’s intricate balancing act. Despite the tension, experts suggest concerns about an immediate diplomatic rift with Taiwan may be overstated. They predict the new pope will act with caution, preserving the Vatican’s autonomy in spiritual affairs and maintaining ties with Taiwan.

Future of Vatican-Taiwan Relations

The future of Vatican-Taiwan relations appears delicately poised following Pope Francis’s death. Taiwan not only represents a religious minority, with fewer than 300,000 Catholics, but also holds symbolic significance in the international ecclesiastical community. Yet, Taiwan remains watchful of the Vatican’s actions and statements regarding China, wary of any significant policy shifts that might affect its position.

Taiwan’s President William Lai’s diplomatic gesture of extending condolences reflects the respectful yet cautious optimism Taiwan wishes to maintain with the Vatican. The upcoming decision by the future pope will be crucial in maintaining this delicate balance, ensuring Taiwan continues to stand as a pivotal part of the Vatican’s global outreach.