Controversial Governor Hopeful PULLS AHEAD In Crucial Race

conservativehub.com — A billionaire who has already spent more than $200 million of his own money to become California’s governor is now polling in the top three statewide — and the most uncomfortable question isn’t whether he can win, it’s whether the votes are real or simply purchased.

Story Snapshot

Tom Steyer sits at 19% in the final UC Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies pre-primary poll, placing him third in a race sharpened to three serious contenders.
Xavier Becerra leads at 25%, with Republican Steve Hilton at 21% and Steyer at 19%, meaning fewer than six points separate second from third place.
Steyer personally spent roughly $210 million on the campaign, drawing sharp criticism that his polling numbers reflect advertising saturation rather than genuine voter enthusiasm.
Independent voters are splitting evenly among Becerra, Steyer, and Hilton, suggesting Steyer’s appeal is not confined to loyal Democrats alone.

Three Men, One Ticket, and a $210 Million Question

California’s open top-two primary sends only the top two vote-getters to the general election, regardless of party. That structure turns the June 2 primary into a brutal arithmetic exercise, and by late May the math had narrowed to three names. The UC Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies poll conducted May 19 through 24 showed Becerra at 25%, Hilton at 21%, and Steyer at 19% among likely voters. The pollster’s own summary was blunt: “Now we can kind of see with some clarity that it’s going to be Becerra, Hilton and Steyer.” ^[1]

What that tidy summary obscures is the spending figure hovering over every Steyer data point. San Francisco Republican Party Chair Nick Berg told ABC7 that Steyer had burned through more than $192 million on advertising alone and was “very overexposed.” ^[1] Steyer himself acknowledged the spending arms race in his final pitch to voters, saying, “We’re either tied or ahead,” while noting opponents had spent heavily to stop him. ^[3] That self-assessment is at least consistent with the polling, but it does not settle whether voters are responding to his platform or simply recognizing a name they have seen on every billboard and television screen in the state.

Where Steyer’s Numbers Are Softer Than They Look

The Los Angeles Times breakdown of the Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies survey revealed that among likely Democratic voters, Becerra led Steyer by 11 percentage points. ^[2] That gap matters because Democratic turnout will dominate the primary electorate. Steyer is competitive, but he is not consolidating his own party’s base. His stronger footing appears among no-party-preference voters, who split roughly evenly among Becerra, Steyer, and Hilton, which is encouraging but also a thin reed in a low-turnout primary where party registration drives results. ^[2]

The regional picture is similarly complicated. The Los Angeles Times reported that Hilton outperformed both Democrats in some northern coastal and Sierra region counties, which means the geography Steyer would need to dominate to claim a true Northern California lead is already contested by the Republican in the race. ^[2] The available polling does not provide a clean Northern California county-level breakout showing Steyer in first place there, so claims of a regional lead are ahead of what the data actually confirm.

The Emerson Poll Adds a Wrinkle That Hurts Hilton More Than Steyer

A separate Emerson College poll found Becerra leading at 28% to 29%, with Steyer edging Hilton for the second spot. ^[6] Two independent polls arriving at roughly the same top-three order in the final week before a primary is not nothing. Polling convergence of that kind typically signals the horse race is real, not an artifact of one firm’s methodology. The spread between Steyer and Hilton in both surveys falls within normal polling variation, but the consistency of Steyer placing ahead of or even with Hilton across multiple pollsters is a fact that spending skeptics have to account for. ^[1]^[6]

CEPP poll | 5/23-5/26 LV

California Governor jungle primary 2026

(Top two vote getters advance)

🟦Xavier Becerra 29%
🟥Steve Hilton 23%
🟦Tom Steyer 18%
🟥Chad Bianco 11%
🟦Katie Porter 8%
🟦Matt Mahan 4%
🟦Antonio Villaraigosa 3%

Link to poll: https://t.co/KEJWhxjDoz pic.twitter.com/2AL6zfhheg

— Politics & Poll Tracker 📡 (@PollTracker2024) June 1, 2026

The honest read of the available evidence is this: Steyer is genuinely in the top tier of a competitive primary, and dismissing that entirely as a money illusion requires ignoring two polls from different organizations reaching similar conclusions. At the same time, $210 million in personal spending is not a footnote — it is a structural advantage that makes it nearly impossible to isolate whether voters chose Steyer or simply could not avoid him. ^[3] California voters deserve a candidate whose support survives a spending audit. Whether Steyer’s does will only be answered when the certified vote totals arrive, and pre-election polls, however consistent, are not votes.